2015 Power Rankings-Playoffs 1
Introduction Just like that the regular season is over. In the words of Big Cat, the football sandwich has been almost completely eaten. We’re down to our last few bites, but they’re the best bites of all. Six teams fight for a shot at the trophy. And I know the winning pot isn’t that large (reminder $90 for 1st, money back for 2nd) but maybe it’s enough to at least cover some of the buy-ins for your other leagues or buy yourself a nice victory steak. It ain’t nothing. Not only that, but you get to have bragging rights. This season might have been the craziest of them all. No clarity as to who the strongest teams are like in previous years. It’s anyone’s game. A Quick Note on the ACTUAL Playoffs I've already talked with most of you about going to a Patriots game in January. Everyone in the league is invited. That being said, I know my dad hates the cold so papa I understand if you don't love me enough to come. I'll just make a note and never forget the time you didn't want to spend time with your son. I want to caravan down four hours before gametime, tailgate it up, and then go to me and Chris's favorite spot right below where the banners used to hang. Great standing section with a perfect view of the field. Now, the original plan was Divisional Weekend because it was assumed the Pats would have a bye. While I still think they'll win out and that will happen, there's no guarentee (as we've seen). If they don't get the bye, their home game will be either 1/9-1/10. If they DO get the bye, the game will be either 1/16 or 1/17. I'm going to go no matter what weekend, but I know for guys who work on the weekends it's not easy to get time off. But that's the sitch. Keep your eyes on the standings and I hope everyone can come with me. Also, I plan on going to any and all Patriot home games so if you want to hold off until the AFCCG at Foxboro I'll be down to ride with you then as well (or you can just come to them all with me). If someone is feeling frisky and wants to try going to a game at another stadium (say in the unlikely scenario the Pats get eliminated before we all get to a game) I'm down for that too. The Best vs. The Bottom This year it’s The Best. vs. The Bottom. Three former champions enter the tournament along with the three teams who finished 8th-10th last year. In the opening round, 2011 champion faces off against last year’s 10th place team. Then, the 2012 champion faces off against last year’s 9th place team. The 2013 champion and last season’s 8th place team have the bye and will join the fun December 17th. Playoffs? Playoffs?! Let’s not leave out the consolation teams. It would be wrong to say they aren’t playing meaningful fantasy football. The team that goes undefeated in the Consolation Tournament will win the right to decide the order of the first four picks in the 2016 draft. Just to reiterate for anyone new, the bottom four teams will have the top four picks in the order decided upon by the Consolation Tournament winner. The order of picks 5-10 are determined based on how teams fair in the Champions Bracket. 'Post-Season Videos' In case anyone missed the video link, here is the 2015 playoffs video I put together. Now Patrick asked me what the consolation teams get since the playoff teams got a cool video. I put together this short video for you guys. Hope you like it. LOP: League of Parity It is well known that in four years we’ve had four different champions. But did you know we’ve also had four different 2nd place teams, four different 3rd place teams, and four different 5th place teams? We’ve had three different 4th place teams (Shotti has finished 4th twice) and three different 6th place teams (Fire Goodell has finished 6th twice) but basically everyone has finished in a different spot every single year. Talk about balance. List of Finishes by year Parity Chart The team on the left beat the team on the right. It’s not as neat as a circle would be but what this basically says is any team is capable of beating any team on any given Sunday. ' ' ' Fire Goodell>GaroppoblowMe GaroppoblowMe>The Shotti Bunch The Shotti Bunch>ma ma momma said ma ma momma said>Deez Sons of Bitchez Deez Sons of Bitchez>TEAM MANBEARPIG TEAMMANBEARPIG>#FreeOJ FreeOJ>Reign Maker Reign Maker>Paddock 9 Paddock 9>Fire Goodell Who’s Hot, Who’s Not I am sure there are more complex and accurate ways to determine who the hottest team is headed into the post-season. But as in recent years, I’ve found my method is just as good at determining who has the best chance of winning it all. Here are the rankings of hottest to coldest teams based on the total points scored over the last three weeks. Last season Reign Maker had scored the most points over the last three weeks. This year they scored the least. Last season Reign Maker’s team stayed hot and they won it all. This season it’s Papa’s Posse who has the hottest team in the league. Is a second trophy in store for them? Join the Club *Paddock 9 becomes the 4th member of the 13,000 points against club. *Dee becomes the 9th member of the 8000 points against club. *Paddock 9 joins the list of top-ten single season points against totals with 2799.83. That’s good for the 9th most points against ever recorded in a single season. Yay? *Fire Goodell joins the list of top-ten lowest single season point totals. Their 2230.99 points this season is the fourth lowest point total by a team in LOC history. *ma ma momma said moves up to 3rd all-time on the Lowest Single-Season Points Against Totals list with a single season total of 2450.59 points against. *ma ma momma said, with their epic choke, becomes the 6th team to record 30 combined losses. *Also of note, GaroppoblowMe moves up to 1st all-time on the regular-season points against list. The Rankings : NOTE: Championship Bracket records do not include 5th place and 3rd place games. Those are included in the total post-season records along with consolation tournament wins. Consolation Tournament wins include all games played by the 7th-10th place teams (11th, 9th, and 7th place games). : 1(3). The Shotti Bunch *Record vs. Playoff Teams: 5-3 *Championship Bracket Record: 5-2 *Total Post-Season Record: 5-4 ' ' The Shotti Bunch gets their first win against ma ma momma said and with it they secure the number one seed in the league for the second time. That’s good news for TSB, as the tight-end position is continuing to present problems and several players are nursing injuries.' ' ' *How they win it all:' The bye sets up the triumphant return of Gronk in the semi-finals. Cam Newton continues to produce big numbers with favorable matchups against the Giants and Falcons. Gurley reemerges as the threat he was to start the year and compliments the consistent Yeldon and Hopkins, while Arizona defense does what it does. *How they lose it all:' Health has been an issue all season and continues to be a concern moving forward. Gronk doesn’t return in time for the week 15 game. Buck Allen cools off and Gurley continues to struggle on a Rams team that has all but given up on their coach. Cam has been hot but can’t keep up his five-TD performances the rest of the way, especially against division opponents who always play Carolina tough. ' ' ' 2(1). ma ma momma said *Record vs. Playoff Teams: 5-4 *Championship Bracket Record: 4-2 *Total Post-Season Record: 5-4 ' ' This is the worst W/L record for MMMS since 2011. That is more a statement on how consistently good this team has been and not a knock on their 2015 campaign. That being said, their failure to seal the deal and secure the bye on Monday Night Football may come back to haunt them.' ' *How they win it all:' Matchups, matchups, matchups. Favorable opening round matchup with a team they have beaten twice already this season flows into a week 15 game with yet another team they’ve beaten. Meanwhile, the Giants are in the heat of a close division race with all three other teams. The success of MMMS hinges more on them than anything, and if MMMS wins it all it's because they perform. ODB and Eli hook up for touchdowns every week down the stretch as Manning returns to annoying 2007/2011 playoff form. In the opening round, NYG gets into a shootout with MIA, a game in which six of momma's players will take the field. *How they lose it all:' All the eggs are in one basket. NYG’s failure will also be MMMS failure. Too many players belong to teams in the NFC East. Dez Bryant cannot get the touches he needs to be a decent WR2, let alone a WR1. Jordan Reed is wildly inconsistent and Freeman has scored just 27.86 points since November 8th after scoring over 27.86 points in four of six games to start the year. Add to that a poorly timed trip to Australia, where the time difference will no doubt lead to confusion as to when games are being played and who is starting when. If he wants to win he’ll cancel the trip immediately. ' ' ' 3(4). FreeOJ *Record vs. Playoff Teams: 5-3 *Championship Bracket Record: 0-2 *Total Post-Season Record: 1-7 FOJ evens the series against Paddock 9 3-3 and finishes the season tied for 2nd place. OJ dropped Ryan Fitzpatrick this morning after I labored for hours making sure that every clip I used in my Playoff Preview was of a player on the right team’s roster, but we won’t hold that against him as he struggles to find just the right QB with whom he can make his run.' *How they win it all:' FOJ is the only team in the league to have won a game with four different QBs. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Hoyer, Philip Rivers, Ryan Tannehill have all produced wins, and since streamlining QBs starting with Kirk Cousins in week 10 they are 3-1. Now they turn to Bortles. Bortles produces big against an Indy defense giving up the 5th most points to QBs. They start the right defense every week. Kamar Aiken remains the go-to threat for a severely under-talented Baltimore team. The team has scored more and more points every week since November 15th and they continue to trend in the right direction. Someone else takes out Shotti and they get favorable matchups every week. *How they lose it all:' This is a team that has never won in the playoffs. They have notoriously choked in both 2011 and 2013 after finishing both of those seasons with the best records. Both times they lost to the team that would go on to be the year’s champion. One of those teams happens to be their opening round opponent. If they win, they most likely face the other team that has knocked them out of playoff contention. The team has been wildly inconsistent all season and hasn’t laid a stinker in several weeks, setting up another soul-crushing disappointment in the coming weeks. Eventually they gamble wrong on a quarterback. The age of their RBs catches up to them, with Gore, McFadden, and Williams suddenly tanking when they’re needed most. They have never been favored by the Fantasy Gods, and the Gods lord over all. ' 4(5). Papa’s Posse *Record vs. Playoff Teams: 2-5 *Championship Bracket Record: 3-1 *Total Post-Season Record: 6-3 Papa’s Posse triumphs in another win-and-in week 13 game, making this their longest winning streak since 2011. Back then they needed to win their final FIVE games to sneak in and eventually take the trophy. This season they needed to win their final three and they did. From dead in the water just four weeks ago, this looks now like the team to beat. Headlining their week 13 blowout? Darren fucking Sproles. The cast-off. The runningback no one wanted. Sproles finishes the regular season with 171.15 points. Lynch has 109.' *How they win it all:' We’ve already seen this one. Papa’s Posse gets ragged on in the rankings, called out for having a team that doesn’t show up on Sundays and rarely meets projections. Then out of nowhere they start blowing teams out and make it all the way to the Championship Game. Well they’ve already knocked off one defending champ and now they take aim at FreeOJ, the team they destroyed in the semi-finals back in 2011. The Fantasy Gods continue to favor the Posse, gracing him with continued success from Jeremy Hill, Amari Cooper, and the very long list of veterans (inc. Palmer, Johnson, Witten, Marshall). *How they lose it all:' Since picking up Green Bay defense, Papa’s Posse has started 111 defensive fantasy points and benched a whopping 190, and that number includes two weeks where the benched team was on a bye. Papa’s Posse has made the correct start at defense just once. This comes back to haunt them as they once again choose wrong and bench a win. The old guys run out of gas and the recent resurgence of Hill sputters. Health is another big concern. Palmer specifically needs to stay upright or else the clock will strike midnight on Cinderella. ' ' ' 5(2). GaroppoblowMe *Record vs. Playoff Teams: 4-3 *Championship Bracket Record: 2-2 *Total Post-Season Record: 4-5 There is no other word to use except luck. Their team underperformed yet again, losing their second game to Fire Goodell. They were bailed out by The Shotti Bunch and Dez Bryant on MNF and snuck into a bye spot by just 13.85 points. New England defense hasn’t reached their projection in five straight weeks. Their two star RBs were scheduled to go against top defenses. Stevie Johnson is injured. Hurns is still concussed. A game in week 14 might have spelled a quick end to what has been a great season. Instead they get to rest up and prepare for the semi-finals.' *How they win it all:' AP All-Day rarely has a bad day. He gets favorable matchups in week 15 and 16 and produces. The other top guys, Green and Murray, have to come through as well. If any team needs Gronk back as much as The Shotti Bunch it’s GaroppoblowMe. The lack of weapons for Brady can easily be felt and it translates to a loss of points both at QB and DEF. Gronk comes back and New England returns to early season form, so the two positions can combine for 60-70 points a game. Ultimately, all the hard work this team’s manager has put in to the league pleases the Fantasy Gods and they reward the owner with their first trophy. *How they lose it all:' ' Barnidge has lost a ton of value now that Johnny Manziel is back at QB. That’s just the beginning of the problems for the flex spots. Which of the inconsistent bench players do you start with Julian Edelman still out? If Gronk doesn’t come back, Brady loses 5-15 points per game. With the flex spots up in the air, the weight becomes too heavy for guys like AJ Green and Doug Baldwin. As consistent as they’ve been, everyone has off weeks. Those weeks come at the wrong time. Outside of that, there's the Matt Jinx. If you don't know what that is, it's exactly what it sounds like. Winning just doesn't fit with the nature of the universe. 6(6). Deez Sons of Bitchez *Record vs. Playoff Teams: 2-5 *Championship Bracket Record: 0-0 *Total Post-Season Record: 2-2 Dee has suffered an epic collapse. Luckily their early season success just barely kept them in the playoffs because of their point total. On the plus side, they put together solid performance in week 13.They just fell victim to Pittsburgh on Sunday night. Can Dee become the first female manager to win a playoff game?' *How they win it all:' The players that brought Dee their success are mostly still there. Sure they lost Charles but Lynch can get healthy in time. Matt Forte is back in action and the hail mary by Rodgers put a spark in the QB that might be enough to light a playoff run. Bernard emerges from hiding and Seferian-Jenkins, out since a great week 1, becomes a surprise star late in the year. They’ve already lost twice to ma ma momma said, what are the chances they lose three in a row? *How they lose it all:' The Fantasy Gods chuckled when they took away the cream-puff matchup against ailing GaroppoblowMe and handed them the much more difficult and scary matchup with ma ma momma said. The will of the Gods is strong, maybe too strong to overcome. Rodgers may have been bailed out by the Hail Mary, which shadowed his otherwise average performance. He continues to be a letdown, as does Bernard. Larry Fitz’s ankle finally starts to hold him back, while the lack of RB depth continues to hurt them because Lynch isn’t able to get back on the field in time. Getting past the team that really should have finished second will be a big enough challenge, but get past that and they have to face the team that DID finish in first place. The odds are stacked against them. 7(8). TEAM MANBEARPIG *Record vs. Consolation Teams: 3-2 *Consolation Tournament Record: 0-0 *Total Post-Season Record: 0-0 TEAM MANBEARPIG moves up from 18th to 14th on the regular season point totals list in a surprising come from behind win against Deez Sons of Bitchez. Unfortunately, it isn’t enough to give them them the playoff berth they so desperately desired. As a result, I will not be buying any of you Super Bowl tickets any time soon. However, my birthday does fall on SB50 this year so if you all want to pitch in to send me, feel free. TMBP could have been a real threat this season had they won that close game against Papa’s Posse during which they lost Big Ben. They are getting hot at just the right time and finally seemed to be healthy and complete. There’s always next year. Oh, and hey...Burns... 8(9). Fire Goodell *Record vs. Consolation Teams: 3-2 *Consolation Tournament Record: 2-0 *Total Post-Season Record: 3-5 Talk about getting hot at the right time. If this team showed up just two weeks earlier than they might have taken the 6th seed. Bills Mafia has been an overwhelming threat and Cincy defense has all but made up for the loss of Le’Veon Bell earlier in the year. They are now 6-2 against GaroppoblowMe including two wins this season. In the end, they beat their projection eight times this season, including five straight to end the year.' ' ' 9(7). Reign Maker' *Record vs. Consolation Teams: 3-2 *Consolation Tournament Record: 0-0 *Total Post-Season Record: 5-3 ' ' Reign Maker finished below .500 for the first time. A once proud franchise, they find themselves broken, shattered, embarrassed. They could never quite get it right this year. The Championship hangover was strong. Can they salvage their reputation next year or do they fall into the abyss like Papa’s Posse in 2012 and 2013?' 10(10). Paddock 3-10 *Record vs. Consolation Teams: 1-4 *Consolation Tournament Record: 5-1 *Total Post-Season Record: 6-2 Paddock 9 had not recorded double-digit losses since 2011, when they finished with a league worst 11. The team that started the year by divvying out the 1-4 picks helped in handing FreeOJ, Dee, and GBM playoff berths when they picked Eddie Lacy first overall. They are the lone remaining consolation team from last season. They are an embarrassment. A disgrace. They are….they are hungry for revenge. I dare say we may be looking at a force to be reckoned with come next sea...haha...ha...hahaha...sorry...next seahahahhaha...Ah fuck it I can’t even pretend. Your team sucks man.'' The Matchups ma ma momma said vs. Deez Sons of Bitchez *Head to head record: 4-0 (ma ma momma said undefeated) We’ve already seen MMMS lose to one team they’d never lost to, so who is to say the trend cannot continue. As of now MMMS has the projected edge 235.95-209.48. They are the hotter team coming in but Dee is coming off of a good game. Dee has the edge at TE and DEF, RB looks like a draw, but QB and WR edge goes to MMMS. This game will be closer than expected. If Dee matches the projection Thursday Night it will be a good sign that they can overcome some tough player matchups to pull the upset. However, no matter what happens over the weekend it is going to come down to a monster Monday Night Football game for ma ma momma said. The season will be on the line for both teams as Dee, who will have already finished playing all 11 guys, will have to hope for a defensive battle in Miami when Landry, Manning, Beckham, and Brown leave it all on the field for momma. FreeOJ vs. Papa’s Posse *Head to head record: 5-3 (advantage: Papa’s Posse) *Playoff head to head record: 1-0(Advantage: The Posse) Those of us who were around in 2011 remember the onslaught of trash talk by FreeOJ, followed by one of the most memorable chokes in league history. Now the two teams meet once again. FreeOJ can have his ultimate revenge by ending the storybook season for Papa’s Posse, but the Posse has other plans. With the hottest team in the league, Papa can hand OJ their third one and done in the playoffs and most likely kick them into oblivion until 2017. 222.20-207.93 in favor of FreeOJ is the projection right now, but Papa does not feel limited to what is expected of his team. They have gone above and beyond over the last three weeks. Both teams come in with modest three game win streaks. One of those streaks is about to end. Neither team, as of December 8th, has a player going on Monday night. So by then we will know who the first team to advance will be and everyone can watch the battle unfold between Dee and momma on Monday Night Football.